COST Costco Wholesale Corp $921.40 +1.2%
JD

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Holdings
COST $921.40 +1.2% 32%
AMZN $186.50 +0.8% 28%
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TGT $142.80 −1.1% 18%
BJ $84.20 +0.4% 8%
KR $62.10 −0.6% 5%
DG $78.50 +1.5% 4%
DLTR $71.30 −0.2% 3%
Portfolio Performance (6M)
NovDecJanFebMarApr
+9.8% 6-month return
Total Value
$2.41M
Day P&L
+$12,340
Holdings
4
Beta
0.68
Sharpe
1.42
Max DD
−4.1%
Sector Weightings
Consumer Staples 56% $1.35M
Consumer Discretionary 26% $627K
Technology 10% $241K
Health Care 8% $193K
Factor Tilt vs. S&P 500
Value
+0.32
Size
−0.48
Momentum
+0.18
Quality
+0.41
Low Vol
+0.27
Mkt Beta
0.68

Earnings Calendar

This Week
Tue May 6
COST Q3 FY25 BMO 2d
KR Q1 FY25 AMC 2d
Thu May 8
WMT Q1 FY26 BMO 4d
DG Q1 FY26 AMC 4d
Next Week
AMZN Q1 FY25 BMO May 15
TGT Q1 FY26 AMC May 15

Watchlist Alerts

COST Q2 FY25 earnings beat (+7.5% comp) Thesis + 2h ago
AMZN AWS growth acceleration to 19% YoY Thesis + 1d ago
WMT New 10-K filed — updated segment data Filing 2d ago
COST Insider sell: $4.2M by CFO Thesis − 3d ago

Recent Reports & Exports

Investment Memo
COST — Membership Economics at Scale
Draft · Updated 45 min ago
Financial Model
COST — Revenue Build FY25–FY27
Base case · AI-generated
IC Memo
AMZN — AWS Re-acceleration Thesis
Published · Apr 28
Earnings Update
COST — Q2 FY25 Earnings Note
Auto-generated · Mar 6
Peer Comparison
Warehouse Club Margin Analysis
COST vs WMT, TGT, BJ · Apr 22
Export
COST Model — Excel Export
3 tabs with formulas · Apr 20
Risk Register
AMZN — Risk & Mitigant Analysis
12 risks identified · Apr 18
Initiation
WMT — Full Initiation Report
In progress · 60% complete

Pending Reviews

COST Investment Memo — Draft 2 comments 45 min ago
COST Revenue Model — Assumptions 4 unverified 2h ago

Agent Status

SEC Filings Agent 45% · COST 10-K
Financial Modeling Agent 62% · Revenue build
Earnings Call Agent 78% · Q2 FY25
Company Research Agent Completed
COST · Nasdaq · Consumer Staples · Membership Warehouse Clubs

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Founded 1983  ·  Issaquah, WA  ·  897 warehouses  ·  14 countries  ·  ~320,000 employees

Market Cap
$408.7B
EV
$401.2B
Price
$921.40
+1.2% today
P/E (TTM)
54.8x
EV/EBITDA
31.2x
Dividend Yield
0.5%
FY24 Revenue
$254.5B
+5.0% YoY
Gross Margin
12.6%
Operating Margin
3.6%
Net Income
$7.4B
+15.8% YoY
Membership Fee Inc.
$4.8B
Renewal Rate
93.0%

Business Summary

Costco operates 897 warehouses across 14 countries, generating $254.5B in FY24 revenue through a membership-based wholesale model. The company's competitive moat is built on three pillars: scale-driven purchasing power that enables industry-leading pricing, a curated 4,000-SKU assortment (vs. 30,000+ at traditional grocers) that drives inventory velocity, and membership fees that contribute nearly all operating profit while locking in customer loyalty at a 93% renewal rate.

The business is organized into two reportable segments: Merchandise (93% of net sales, subdivided into Food & Sundries, Hardlines, Fresh, and Ancillary) and Membership Fees (2% of revenue but ~70% of operating income). Warehouse club operations span the US (615 locations), Canada (109), and International (173). E-commerce represents approximately 6% of total sales.

Segment Revenue Breakdown

SegmentFY23FY24YoY Growth% of Net Sales
Food & Sundries$96.8B$101.8B+5.1%45.8%
Hardlines$41.6B$43.7B+5.0%19.7%
Fresh$36.1B$38.6B+6.8%17.3%
Ancillary / Other$21.9B$23.1B+5.6%10.4%
E-Commerce$14.2B$15.3B+7.7%6.9%
Total Net Sales$210.7B$222.5B+5.6%100%

Key KPIs

Warehouses
897
+29 FY25E
Paid Members
76.2M
+7.3% YoY
Avg Transaction
$114.72
Shopping Frequency
26x/year
Executive Mix
47.3%
Up from 44.8%
E-Commerce
6.0%
+18.5% growth

Reports & Analysis

Investment Memo
Membership Economics at Scale
Draft · 2 reviews
Financial Model
Revenue Build FY25–FY27
Base / Bull / Bear
Earnings Update
Q2 FY25 Earnings Note
Auto-generated · Mar 6
Peer Comparison
Warehouse Club Margins
COST vs WMT, TGT, BJ
Valuation
DCF + Comps Analysis
$720–$1,280 range
Risk Register
Risk & Mitigant Framework
8 risks catalogued

Source Materials

SEC Filing
10-K Annual Report FY2024
Filed Oct 2024 · 142 pages · Used in 4 sections
Earnings Transcript
Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call
Mar 6, 2025 · 68 min · Used in 3 sections
Investor Presentation
Costco Investor Day Deck
Jan 2025 · 34 slides · Used in 2 sections
Press Release
Membership Fee Increase Announcement
Jul 2024 · Used in 2 sections
Revenue Build ($M)FY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025EFY2026EFY2027E
Food & Sundries91,24096,830101,800107,910113,310118,970
Growth %6.8%6.1%5.1%6.0%5.0%5.0%
Hardlines40,12041,64043,73045,92047,61049,370
Growth %4.2%3.8%5.0%5.0%3.7%3.7%
Fresh33,85036,11038,57040,50042,53044,650
Growth %7.5%6.7%6.8%5.0%5.0%5.0%
Ancillary / Other20,44021,87023,10024,26025,47026,740
Growth %5.1%7.0%5.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%
E-Commerce12,46014,21015,30018,36021,21024,390
Growth %10.2%14.0%7.7%20.0%15.5%15.0%
Total Net Sales198,110210,660222,500236,950250,130264,120
Net Sales Growth %6.1%6.3%5.6%6.5%5.6%5.6%
Membership Fees4,2204,5804,8305,3105,6305,970
Membership Growth %6.5%8.5%5.5%10.0%6.0%6.0%
Total Revenue202,330215,240227,330242,260255,760270,090
  • Investment Thesis
  • Key Drivers
  • Variant Perception
  • Business Quality
  • Competitive Moat
  • Membership Economics
  • Scale Advantages
  • Financial Summary
  • Revenue & Growth
  • Margins & Leverage
  • Capital Allocation
  • Valuation
  • DCF Framework
  • Comparable Analysis
  • Bull / Base / Bear
  • Risks
  • Competition
  • Margin Pressure
  • Consumer Sensitivity
  • Catalysts
  • Appendix
Draft
COST · Nasdaq · Consumer Staples · Membership Warehouse Clubs

Membership Economics at Scale: A Durable Compounder

Prepared by JD · April 2026 · Confidential

Investment Thesis

Costco's membership model creates a self-reinforcing flywheel: scale drives lower prices, lower prices drive member loyalty, and loyalty funds operating margins through membership fees

We believe Costco represents one of the highest-quality business models in global retail. The membership fee structure effectively pre-collects operating profit from a captive customer base with a 93% renewal rate, insulating the company from competitive pressure and allowing it to run merchandise at near-breakeven margins. The September 2024 fee increase — the first since 2017 — creates a multi-year tailwind to earnings that is not yet fully appreciated by consensus estimates. [1]

AI suggestion: "The membership fee increase in September 2024, the first since 2017, provides a structural earnings tailwind that consensus estimates have not yet fully incorporated."
Key Drivers

Three structural advantages compound over time

Driver 1
Fee Hike Leverage
+10% membership income in FY25
Driver 2
Unit Growth
29 net new warehouses in FY25
Driver 3
E-Commerce Scale
+18.5% YoY, growing contribution
Variant Perception

What the market is missing

The consensus view treats Costco as a fully-valued staple with limited upside. We see three underappreciated dynamics: first, the fee increase's impact on executive tier conversion rates is lagging and will accelerate through FY26. Second, e-commerce margins are structurally higher than in-warehouse due to reduced shrink and optimized last-mile economics. Third, international expansion — particularly in Asia — represents a $20B+ revenue opportunity with minimal incremental SG&A. [2] [3]

1
Valuation

Premium justified by quality, with defined downside protection

Bear Case
$720
−22% · Multiple compression
Base Case
$1,050
+14% · Steady growth + fee lift
Bull Case
$1,280
+39% · Re-rating + int'l accel.
Review Tools
Select text to highlight or comment. Use "Draw Box" to mark areas with a red bounding box.
Citations
[1] SEC Filing
10-K FY2024, p. 24 — Membership economics
Verified · Auto-linked
[2] Earnings Transcript
Q2 FY25 call — Executive tier metrics
Verified · AI-extracted
[3] Analyst Report
International expansion TAM analysis
External · Unverified
Review Status
Investment ThesisApproved
Key DriversReview
Business QualityPending
ValuationReview
RisksPending
Comments (2)
PM Review1
"Variant perception section is strong. Add a sentence on what consensus margin estimate is and how yours differs."
2 hours ago · On: Variant Perception
Analyst⚠ Question
"The $20B international TAM claim needs a source. Which markets specifically?"
45 min ago · On: Variant Perception
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Activity Feed
2m ago
SEC Filings
Extracting segment revenue breakdown from 10-K FY2024. Found 4 reportable merchandise categories.
4m ago
Earnings Call
Processing Q2 FY2025 transcript. Identified 12 key topics, 6 guidance items.
7m ago
Financial Modeling
Revenue build initialized using segment data from SEC Filings Agent.
12m ago
Company Research
Company overview complete. Structured profile includes business model, segments, KPIs.
18m ago
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Research workspace initialized for COST. 4 sources ingested.

SEC Filings Agent

Running · 45% complete
Current Task
Extracting segment revenue data, KPI tables, and risk factor summaries from 10-K FY2024 filing (142 pages).
Inputs (from upstream)
10-K FY2024 filing Proxy statement Company website
Outputs (feeds downstream)
Company Research Financial Modeling Risk
Execution Log
10:42 AM
Parsed MD&A section. Found segment disclosures on pages 24–28.
10:41 AM
Extracted consolidated income statement data for FY22–FY24.
10:40 AM
Initialized PDF parser on 10-K filing document.
10:39 AM
Task started. Assigned: SEC Filings Agent.
Actions
>
⌘K

SEC Filings Agent

Running · 45%
Live Output

Segment Revenue — FY2024

Extracted from 10-K, Item 6, page 27

SegmentFY22FY23FY24
Food & Sundries$91.2B$96.8B$101.8B
Hardlines$40.1B$41.6B$43.7B
Fresh$33.9B$36.1B$38.6B
Ancillary$20.4B$21.9B$23.1B

Extracting risk factors next…

>
Execution Trace
01
Load filing document
Source: 10-K FY2024, 142 pages · 2.1 MB
02
Parse table of contents
Identified 8 sections, 4 containing financial data
03
Extract consolidated statements
Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow · FY22–FY24
04
Parse segment disclosures
Item 6, pages 24–28 · 4 merchandise categories identified
05
Extract risk factors…
In progress · Parsing Item 1A
06
Extract KPIs
Queued
07
Summarize MD&A commentary
Queued
JD
James Davidson
Senior Analyst · Meridian Capital

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